DCB Subscription Lifecycle Simulator

Acquisition

New subscriptions 1,000

New CPA subscriptions acquired each month.

CPA cost $3.50

Billing

Billability 60%

Share of active subscriptions that generate at least one charge this month.

Avg rebills / paying user 10.0

Average successful write-offs per billed subscriber per month.

Churn

Voluntary unsubscribe rate 10%

Monthly share of existing active subscribers who cancel.

Revenue

Revenue per charge $0.25

Amount collected per successful billing event. ARPPU is calculated in metrics.

Cohort payback

Pays back

When cumulative cohort revenue covers CPA spend (subscriptions × CPA cost).

Acquisition cost

$3,500

Payback period

Month 3

Cohort revenue

$4,200

Net at horizon

$2,600

LTV / CAC

2.63×

Cumulative revenue Acquisition cost

Cumulative profit

Profitable

Cumulative profit (MRR − CPA spend) with 1,000 new subscriptions per month

Total CPA spend

$42,000

Cumulative revenue

$18,500

Cumulative profit

-$23,500

Break-even month

Month 8

M12 monthly profit

$1,850

Each month: profit = MRR − (new subscriptions × CPA cost).
Chart line = running sum of monthly profit over 12 months.
CPA is spent every month; MRR grows as the active base accumulates.

Cumulative profit

Month-end snapshot

M12

Month 12 of the simulation — monthly values, not cumulative totals.

1,900

Active subscribers

Active subscribers after churn and new acquisitions this month.

1,140

Billed users/mo

Active subscribers with at least one successful charge this month.

11,400

Successful charges

Total successful payment events. Billed users × avg rebills.

100

Voluntary churn

Existing active subscribers who cancelled this month.

$2,850

MRR

MRR = successful charges × revenue per charge.

$2.50

ARPPU

Average revenue per billed user per month (MRR ÷ billed users).

760

Not billed

Active subscribers with zero successful charges this month.